There will never be a "Wetangula-for-president" without Raila

Recent events in the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD)have left a number of questions unanswered. Is there a rift in the coalition? The media has continued its endless misguided speculations regarding the so called "CORD principles" and social media fanatics have further magnified the caricature of creative journalistic imaginations. Not once have I felt the need to dismantle the often repeated irony of "CORD principals" and the perceived status of "equal principals" in the coalition.

To begin with, Kalonzo Musyoka, the ever-ambitious diplomat-turned politician and a one-time vice president has once again shelved his eternal aspirations of rising to presidency. His recent declaration of support to either of the other two pricipals was an intelligent if not a foxy decision. He was never a candidate for the presidency and attempts to defy his position as the redundant Wiper party leader whose political ambition has stagnated would be futile and catastrophic. The establishment of "Maendeleo Chap Chap" movement in Kalonzo`s perceived stronghold and its affiliation with one Alfred Mutua ,the Governor Machakos county has indeed ignited a political wave which has further drawn apart the disparaged segments of the Akamba nation .Though Mutua denies defecting from Wiper Party ,his expression of discontent in the party is evident. With weakening support, Wiper party has continued to disintegrate and its significance has been overshadowed by a “movement”. It was prudent for Kalonzo Musyoka to abandon his exaggerated fantasy for the presidency. The numbers in his bargaining basket have continued dwindling day by day.

Wetangula the lawyer-turned politician and a perceived CORD principal continues peddling his false intentions of running for presidency. In the launching of his manufactured bid for presidency, there was the staged absence of CORD leader Raila Odinga. Notably, Wetangula has continued to pacify his followers and the Western voting block with his presidency agenda which Raila Odinga has vowed to support upon successful nomination. I have asked myself who   Wetangula could be without CORD a number of times and the recurring answer is interesting. He will never amount to anything much. As such, he will finally lose strategically to Raila Odinga during the nominations. His legitimacy as a "principal" in the coalition is conditioned by the existence of Raila Odinga.

The structure of the CORD coalition depicts the gaping absence of popular-driven ideology and in its place stands an aggregate of individual tendencies founded on the age-old custom of ethnic numbers. By virtue of popular legitimacy, there is only one principal in CORD and he is the only individual from the Coalition who will be in the ballot. Raila Odinga poses unrivaled candidacy and the other two have been aware all through that neither of them , even in a fair open challenge will defeat him for the grand ticket come 2017.The strategy is a "show of democracy" which in real sense exists in the dreams of the multitude of unconscious CORD followers . Wetangula and Kalonzo do not have the preference of choice. Defecting from the coalition will be politically suicidal. Holding on to their straws is a lesser evil compared to defecting.

Experience and observation in the progress of ODM politics clearly indicates that there is no CORD without Raila Odinga but there can be a "new CORD" without either of the other principals. Neither Wetangula nor Kalonzo has absolute control over his "bargaining basket" in their respective backyards but Raila Odinga continues enjoying a rare legitimacy of charismatic nature across the Western, Coastal and Nyanza regions. There won`t be a Wetangula-for-president come 2017 but a Raila for President. There has never been a rift in CORD either.